Re: [LEAPSECS] UT1 confidence

From: Steve Allen <sla_at_UCOLICK.ORG>
Date: Thu, 18 Jan 2007 11:42:14 -0800

On Wed 2007-01-17T21:47:50 -0000, Robert Jones hath writ:
> Does anyone know where I can find what the predicted effects of global
> warming on rotation due to weight redistribution are likely to be and the
> potential rate of change over the next few decades or centuries, perhaps
> till all the ice has gone.

In the Torino proceedings we see people who work with the IERS who
did not make the best possible short term projections of rotation.
It's less than a decade since the models of oceanic circulation became
good enough that Richard Gross could demonstrate that the annual wobble
of UT2 was mostly due to ocean currents.
There are still ruminations that melting the arctic would trigger a
shutdown of the north Atlantic currents that convey heat north and
thus precipitate an ice age.

I'd love to see this prediction, too, but I would not expect to put
too much confidence in it.

--
Steve Allen                 <sla_at_ucolick.org>                WGS-84 (GPS)
UCO/Lick Observatory        Natural Sciences II, Room 165    Lat  +36.99858
University of California    Voice: +1 831 459 3046           Lng -122.06014
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Received on Thu Jan 18 2007 - 11:42:53 PST

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