Re: [LEAPSECS] Where the responsibility lies

From: Neal McBurnett <neal_at_BCN.BOULDER.CO.US>
Date: Tue, 3 Jan 2006 17:40:54 -0700

On Tue, Jan 03, 2006 at 08:32:08PM +0100, Poul-Henning Kamp wrote:
> If we can increase the tolerance to 10sec, IERS can give us the
> leapseconds with 20 years notice and only the minority of computers
> that survive longer than that would need to update the factory
> installed table of leapseconds.

Do you have any evidence for this assertion? It seems to me that if
IERS had presented a table in 1980, based on the conventional wisdom
that the earth is continuing to slow down over time, we'd have been
at the edge of that 10-second window in 2000. And who knows how far
off a 1995 prediction would be in 2015, or what decadal fluctuations
have in store for us in the future.

Anyone have a prediction algorithm in mind, and a result of running it
on the last several decades or centuries of data?

Neal McBurnett
Received on Tue Jan 03 2006 - 16:41:47 PST

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