On Tue, Jan 03, 2006 at 08:32:08PM +0100, Poul-Henning Kamp wrote:
> If we can increase the tolerance to 10sec, IERS can give us the
> leapseconds with 20 years notice and only the minority of computers
> that survive longer than that would need to update the factory
> installed table of leapseconds.
Do you have any evidence for this assertion? It seems to me that if
IERS had presented a table in 1980, based on the conventional wisdom
that the earth is continuing to slow down over time, we'd have been
at the edge of that 10-second window in 2000. And who knows how far
off a 1995 prediction would be in 2015, or what decadal fluctuations
have in store for us in the future.
http://hpiers.obspm.fr/eop-pc/earthor/utc/leapsecond.html
Anyone have a prediction algorithm in mind, and a result of running it
on the last several decades or centuries of data?
Neal McBurnett
http://bcn.boulder.co.us/~neal/
Received on Tue Jan 03 2006 - 16:41:47 PST